Behavioral Intelligence for MLB

The decisions behind
the numbers.

SIQX (Situational IQ Index) measures the behavioral decision quality of MLB hitters and pitchers using Statcast plate discipline data — identifying who is making good decisions before the box score catches up.

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r = +0.529
SIQX vs xwOBA
297 hitters · 2026
r = −0.567
PSIQX vs xwOBA
231 pitchers · 2026
r = +0.675
Composite r
30 teams · April 2026

Five behavioral components.
One behavioral score.

SIQX v9 scores hitters on five Statcast plate discipline inputs, each percentile-ranked against all qualified hitters in the current season before weighting.

FIQ
Fastball IQ / Hard Contact
Hard hit rate and meatball swing rate. Rewards elite contact quality decisions.
Weight: 25%
DSR
Discipline Score Ratio
Walk rate divided by (BB + K). Most persistent plate discipline signal.
Weight: 25%
CHS
Chase Discipline
Out-of-zone swing rate (inverted). Higher score = better avoidance of bad pitches.
Weight: 20%
ZWP
Zone Whiff Avoidance
In-zone miss rate (inverted). Higher score = fewer misses on hittable pitches.
Weight: 15%
ZCN
Zone Contact Rate
Consistent contact on strikes. Foundation of reliable offensive production.
Weight: 10%
OCN
Out-Zone Contact
Minor credit for making contact on chased pitches.
Weight: 5%

Decisions lead outcomes.
SIQX finds the gap.

The same outcome can result from excellent decisions or poor decisions that happened to work. SIQX identifies which is which — before the results correct.

1
Score every qualified hitter and pitcher
SIQX pulls Statcast plate discipline data weekly. All 297+ qualified hitters and 231+ pitchers are scored and percentile-ranked in the current season pool.
2
Identify behavioral divergence
High SIQX with lagging results = breakout candidate. Low SIQX with strong results = regression risk. The model flags both before the market corrects.
3
Apply to daily composite picks
Team SIQX, starter PSIQX, and bullpen PSIQX combine into a composite validated at r = 0.675 vs run differential. Only underdog picks with confirmed signals are posted.
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▲ Breakout Watch
Brice Turang
MIL · SIQX 88.6 · #1 MLB
Chase avoidance 96th pct, discipline ratio 90th pct, hard contact 93rd pct. Four elite behavioral components.
▼ Regression Alert
Luke Raley
SEA · SIQX 32.5 · xwOBA .453
97th pct hard contact but 0th pct zone contact. Pitchers haven't adjusted yet. They will.
▲ Breakout Watch
Alex Bregman
CHC · SIQX 79.6 · xwOBA .300
Behavioral quality well ahead of results. Decision profile supports significant improvement.
▲ Team Watch
Milwaukee Brewers
SIQX #1 of 30 · Fox rank #5
Most disciplined lineup in baseball. Team DSR 69.4. Underranked by Fox by four spots.
```

Built on Statcast.
Validated against results.

Full research paper with component definitions, validation statistics, bullpen separation methodology, composite weight history, limitations, and live pick record.

SIQX: Situational IQ Index — April 2026 (v1.0)

Working paper covering SIQX v9 (hitters), PSIQX v1 (pitchers), bullpen model, composite pick model with full validation, feature roadmap, and threats to validity.

r=.529
SIQX vs xwOBA
r=.567
PSIQX pitcher
r=.675
Composite
↓  Download Methodology PDF

Built by a behavioral
data scientist.

SB
Stephen Bridwell
Sr. Applied Scientist · M.I.D.S., UC Berkeley · Tampa, FL

The same discipline that powers SIQX — identifying signal in behavioral data at scale — is the foundation of my professional work in machine learning systems. SIQX applies that expertise to baseball: measuring not what players do, but how they decide. I also run Precision Baseball Academy, a player development program in Tampa that uses data to develop better hitters and pitchers.

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